Robbie Cano's Phantom Walk-Rate

On the surface, it appears that Robinson Cano has taken a major step forward in his overall game. His line of .325/.389/.562, combined with his slightly above-average defense (3.6 UZR/150, +3 on Total Zone), has brought Cano into the Most Valuable Player discussion. If one searches for the term "Robinson Cano MVP," Google fetches roughly 65,000 results. Cano's 2010 campaign for MVP has been buttressed by his increased power (his .237 ISO is a career-high) and his spike in walk-rate (his 8.7% walk-rate is also a career-high). While I believe the power is real, I think it would be prudent to look deeper into Cano's walk-rate.

Cano's walk-rate has jumped significantly; in his previous two seasons, Cano had posted underwhelming walk-rates of 4.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Cano, in his short career, had never posted a walk-rate greater than 5.8% prior to 2010. From observing this year's games, though, Cano has appeared to become a more patient hitter, but more rigorous analysis is needed than the old-fashioned eye-ball test.

With Cano's aforementioned power surge, it appears that managers are becoming more unwilling to pitch to him; this year, Cano has drawn 12 intentional walks, which also happens to be a career-high (and by a large margin; he's never drawn more than 5 in a season, and we still have September to go). Those IBBs make up roughly one quarter of all of Cano's BBs this season (49). When we remove Cano's IBBs, his on-base percentage goes from a very impressive .389 to a still-good .375. In addition, Cano's walk-rate, when removing the IBBs, becomes 6.7%; a fairly large discrepancy.

Even after intentional walks are taken out of the equation, it is apparent that Cano is walking more than ever. While a 6.7% walk-rate is still a career-best for Cano, it is, however, far from impressive. With this information in mind, we should temper our enthusiasm (slightly) for Cano's great year. Nevertheless, Cano's walk-rate will continue to improve with age, and is a good companion for his contact, power, and defensive skills.

Yankee Prospects Derailed by Injury

After reading this somewhat-depressing, yet well-written article by Joe Posnanski on the volatility of pitching prospects (TINSTAAPP, anybody?), I decided it would be fun if I made a quick-and-dirty little list of Yankee prospects who had a promising shot at the big leagues, but were derailed by injury. All pitchers on my list were drafted in the first round or the supplementary round, so no 2nd round guys. This qualifier also removes any Yankee prospects from prior to the beginning of the First Year Player draft in 1965. I will list I'm sure there will be obvious people I have missed, and this is not meant as really a comprehensive list, but I think this should be interesting, anyway.

1977: Steve Taylor (drafted in the 1st Round, 23rd overall): Information on Taylor is rather sparse, but we do know he was drafted out of the University of Delaware after pitching there for one year, in which Taylor piled up 114 strikeouts and a tiny 1.59 ERA. After toiling in the minors for four years, Taylor hung up his spikes, apparently prompted by injury. The first comment of this post indicates that Taylor suffered a shoulder injury. Interestingly, Taylor's life after baseball included politics. As a member of the Delaware State House of Representatives, he played a major role in building a stadium for the minor league Wilmington Blue Rocks.

1991: Brien Taylor (drafted 1st Round, 1st overall): Most of you know the story about Taylor. Taylor was the consensus top talent in '91, was a can't-miss prospect, and he fell into the Yanks' lap. Unfortunately, Taylor got into a bar fight, hurt his shoulder in said bar fight, and was never the same again.

1993: Matt Drews (drafted 1st Round, 13th overall): Drafted out of Sarasota High School in Florida, Drews was rated the #13 prospect by Baseball America in 1996 and was rated at #39 by draft maven John Sickels prior to the 1996. Unfortunately, according to Sickels, Drews suffered a major arm injury in 1996. Drews, like all the others on this short list, never threw a pitch in the major leagues.

2001: John Skaggs (drafted 1st Round (Supplementary), 42nd overall): Skaggs was drafted out of Rice University, which has a reputation for abusing the arms of its pitchers, so it was not a surprise to me when I learned that Skaggs blew out his elbow in his first professional start. Skaggs was on prospect radars for a long time; back in 2000, the Baltimore Orioles drafted him in the 4th round, but could not woo him away from Rice. He did return from Tommy John surgery, but he probably was never the same: the Yanks saw fit to let him walk away as a minor league free agent after the 2005 season.

Whew, there really weren't that many pitching prospects I could find that were injured. But there were many draft picks who, for reasons I could not discover, left baseball after only a handful of seasons in the minors or majors; I couldn't find very much on why Bill Burbach (the Yanks' first ever draft-pick in 1965), Brian Ryder (1978), or Jeff Pries (1984) left baseball, for example. Technically, you could count Dave Walling (1999) in the injured column, who appeared to leave baseball for psychological reasons. If you want to break my rule about not including undrafted players, you could mention the infamous Jim Bouton, who had a couple good years with the Yanks in the '60s, but injured his arm and later learned a knuckeball in an attempt to salvage his career. Also of note is 2008 Supplemental pick (#44 overall) Jeremy Bleich, who went down with shoulder surgery in May of 2010. Of course it remains to be seen how Bleich will return from the injury, and I wish him the best, but operating on a labrum does not usually end well.

In any case, it's fairly obvious that not even the Yankees have been immune to heartbreaking injuries to young pitchers. It also highlights the fact that the Yanks have been extraordinarily lucky with Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who (to this point- knock on wood) have not had to undergo arm surgeries (and in Kennedy's case, helped them land Curtis Granderson). The Big Three certainly seem to be the exception, though, and not the rule.

The Real Problem with Granderson

Curtis Granderson has not exactly lit the world on fire with his bat in 2010. His line of .249/.320/.441 does not inspire a great deal of confidence. While Granderson's wOBA (.335) grades out as league-average, he is certainly a weakness in the Yankees' line-up. In addition, Granderson's anemic bat against left-handed pitching (.239/.288/.341) has forced Joe Girardi to sit Granderson in favor of a line-up that has Brett Gardner shifting from left to center field and slotting Austin Kearns into left. There have been some bright spots in Granderson's game, however.

What should be encouraging is that Granderson has retained at least some of the power that he flashed in 2009, when he smashed 30 home runs and put up a .204 ISO. In 2010, Granderson has posted an ISO of .193. Skeptics will say that homer-friendly Yankee Stadium is inflating Granderson's ISO, but Granderson's home ISO is .197; his away ISO is .187 (for those interested, Granderson's ISO against RHP is .237; by comparison, his ISO against LHP is a miniscule .103).

What is also good news for the Yankees is that Granderson appears to be doing a good job of playing center field. Granderson has made quite a few dazzling plays in center, and to an extent, the statistics are verifying what our eyes are seeing. Granderson's UZR/150 is 5.3, on par with his career average of 4.1 UZR/150, and the Fans' Scouting Report also rates Granderson favorably (by contrast, Baseball-Reference's TotalZone has Granderson at -4, but I am more confident with UZR). With the combined league-average bat and above-average fielding, Granderson has provided some value for the Yankees; he has racked up 2.2 Wins Above Replacement in only 391 Plate Appearances. While Yankees fans would love it if Granderson figured out left-handed pitching, he has been far from a black hole on this Yankee team in 2010.

The real concern lies in how Granderson will perform in the future. Granderson has already justified his 2010 salary ($5.5 million); according to Fangraphs, Granderson has already generated $8.9 million in value from his play. But will Granderson ever figure out southpaws? If he has yet to learn to hit LHP at age 29, he probably will never learn how. Fortunately for the Yankees, Granderson's contract is fairly team-friendly (Granderson is owed $8.25 MM for 2011, $10 MM, and the team holds a 2013 option for $13 MM w/$2 MM buyout). But if Granderson's defense starts to take a dive as he ages and he no longer will be able to play center, that contract will start to look bad for the Yankees: it is not ideal to fill a roster-spot with a corner outfielder that can't hit lefties and is making $10 million.

Logan's Turnaround a Godsend or a Mirage?

As I alluded to yesterday, Boone Logan has been pitching rather well in the absence of Damaso Marte (currently on the DL, and not slated to return until after rosters expand on September 1st). Since June 16th (Logan's first appearance after returning from a stint in the minor leagues), Logan has pitched 20.0 innings and struck out 20 hitters, while walking 7 (3 of which were intentional walks) and only giving up one home run; which have culminated to a sparkling ERA of 1.35. Logan's pitching has also helped bolster an already-strong bullpen. But is Logan really this good, or is this just a tease?

For one thing, Logan has been rather lucky. In the stretch of time since June 16th, Logan's opposing hitters have had a BABiP of .240; it is probable that a lot of balls in play have been finding the gloves of Yankee fielders at an unusually high rate. It should also be noted that we are dealing with very small sample sizes here, and the performance of relievers over small samples are notoriously volatile and unpredictable.

Having said that, there are things that we can take from the data that are very encouraging. It is quite miraculous that of the 76 Batters Faced since June 16th, Logan has only unintentionally walked 4 of them; that is fairly impressive control. In addition, in the entire season, Logan has been chewing up left-handed hitters to the tune of .176/.276/.216* over 58 Plate Appearances (small sample size caveats included). Logan has also put up a strong 3.00 K/BB ratio. Comparatively, Logan's numbers against righties are ghastly (an even 1.00 K/BB ratio against RHB says it all) and appearances against RHB should be limited at all costs. If Damaso Marte can't come back strong for the Yanks this season, though, Boone Logan has positioned himself as a defensible LOOGY option.

*It should be noted that Logan's BABiP against LHB is .273, so he's getting a little lucky here as well. That slash line is still miniscule, though. A .216 slugging percentage!? LHB have only managed 1 extra-base hit against Logan this year (a triple). Sure, his performance is going to regress to the mean, and he's going to give up some XBH and homers to lefties at some point in time, but he's still going to be good.

The Trainwreck

When the Yankees traded for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from the Braves in exchange for pitching prospect Arodyz Viscaino, LOOGY Mike Dunn, and everybody's favorite 4th outfielder (Melky Cabrera), the idea was not that the Yankees were trading for an ace. The Yankees did not expect Vazquez to replicate his 2009 numbers, which netted Vazquez a 4th place finish in the NL Cy Young voting. It was a career year for Vazquez; he had never posted a higher K/9 (9.77), and he had only registered a BB/9 lower than his 2009 mark (1.81) once in his entire career. Vazquez also did much of his pitching against an inferior National League. Still, it was not totally preposterous that the Yanks slotted Vazquez into their rotation as their 4th starter.

It is safe to say, however, that Vazquez' performance has not met the expectations of the Yankees' Front Office. By pretty much every measure of a pitcher's performance, from tERA (5.37), to xFIP (4.78), to even plain-old ERA (5.05). Vazquez K/9 has fallen to a pedestrian 7.13, while his BB/9 has skyrocketed to 3.67. And in Saturday's start, Vazquez was pulled after only 3 innings of work and gave up 4 runs and 3 home runs. Vazquez is also posting a career-low ground-ball rate of 34.2% (which is the fourth-lowest in the mark amongst starting pitchers in the AL), while having a career-high fly-ball rate (47.2%) which is the fourth-highest mark in the AL. When so many of the balls hit into play against you, it stands to reason that more of them are going to go for home runs; not including today's start, Vazquez has served up 23 long-balls.

What exactly is wrong with Vazquez? Is he hurt? Is his fastball velocity declining because he's aging (he has recently turned 34)? We simply don't know. One of the few positive things we can point to about this trade is the fact that the Yanks sold high on Melky Cabrera, who is currently lighting NL East pitching on fire to the tune of .263/.322/.374 and has actually been worth -0.5WAR, according to Fangraphs (I'm partial to Fangraphs, but Baseball Reference has Cabrera at 0.0 WAR, not exactly impressive). In addition, Boone Logan has actually pitched passably in the absence of Damaso Marte as the LOOGY (3.40 K/BB ratio against LHP this season). Arodyz Viscaino could indeed pan out as a prospect, but he's still far away from the majors and is currently on the Minor League Disabled List with a partially torn elbow ligament. Vazquez' performance has certainly been disheartening for Yankee fans this season, but it's not like the Yankees traded the farm to get him.

Injury/Transaction News: A-Rod, Nunez, Nova

In Friday's game, Alex Rodriguez was taken out after one at-bat with a strained left calf, the same injury that had been bothering him for some time. The Yankees decided not to risk any further injury, by placing him on the 15-day DL.

To take his place on the roster, the Yankees called up SP Ivan Nova, who will make a few starts, the first of which will be Monday.

Rookie Eduardo Nunez will get the majority of the time at third base while A-Rod is out.

Felix Shut Them Out; Yankees Win Despite Vazquez

The last two games can be easily described in two words: ugly and okay.

Friday the Yankees faced Felix Hernandez and the Mariners with AJ Burnett on the hill, and the result was exactly as you would expect. Hernandez destroyed the Yankees over 8 innings, striking out 11, while allowing only 4 hits. AJ Burnett gave up 12 hits and 6 earned runs over 7 innings of baseball, in the Yankees 6-0 loss. I was there in person to see this debacle.

Yesterday, with the exception of how Javy Vazquez pitched, was a much better game. Things looked like a repeat of Friday early on after Vazquez gave up two first-inning homeruns to Ichiro and Branyan. But the Yankee offense picked up the slack. A 4-run first inning concluded by a 2-run Jorge Posada homerun gave the Yankees the lead, but the Mariners would pick up 2 more runs in the 4th, one of them off of Ichiro's second homerun of the day. Vazquez would leave the game after only 3+ innings pitched.

But that is when the game would change - as Chad Gaudin would come in. Gaudin went 3, 1-hit, scoreless innings, followed by Logan (1), Robertson (.2), and Rivera (1.1).

The Yankees would take the lead back in the 7th when they picked up 3, and would pick up 2 more in the 8th.

The Yankees would end the gain on top 9-5, with Boone Logan getting his first win of the season.

News from Around the League

Just a quick summary of what has been going on...

The Rockies DFA'd LHP Randy Flores.

2.96 ERA is nice, but the 5.9 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in the National League isn't. He's a LOOGY that has been doing better against righties this year.

The Rockies DFA'd OF Brad Hawpe.

With the Rockies out of contention, the playoff contention deadline coming up, and with the Hawpe becoming a free agent this offseason who will not be offered arbitration, and Hawpe's poor performance, the Rockies felt no need to keep him. He has a .776 OPS this season and is not a great defender. He will make a little under $2 million the rest of this year. The Yankees have no room for him with Thames, Kearns, and soon to be Berkman. He needs to join a team by September 1st in order to be eligible for the postseason, although a team might not care; they could just add him after just so they can actually make it - not caring if he's eligible or not.

The Padres signed OF Jody Gerut to a minor league deal, who was released by the Brewers.

He had a .596 OPS in limited action this year. He comes back to the Padres after being traded for Tony Gwynn, Jr. last year.

The Cardinals acquired 3B Pedro Feliz from the Astros in exchange for a minor league pitcher.

.554 OPS. Always hated that signing.

The Mets placed RHP Francisco Rodriguez on the disqualified list. The MLBPA filed a grievance.

The Braves acquired 1B Derrek Lee from the Cubs in exchange for three minor league pitchers.

Lee has a .751 OPS on the year and a .939 OPS since the All Star Break.

The Rays signed SP Ramon Ortiz to a minor league deal.

The Rangers signed RP Jesus Colome to a minor league deal.

The Dodgers released RP Claudio Vargas.

The Rangers signed IF Alex Cora to a minor league deal.

The Giants released SP Todd Wellemeyer.

The Reds DFA'd SP Micah Owings.

The Phillies DFA'd 3B Greg Dobbs.

Aceves, A-Rod Almost Ready for Return; Pettitte Not

INJURY NEWS:

Chad Jennings and Brian Heyman (source, source) has some news regarding the statuses of Alfredo Aceves, Alex Rodriguez, Andy Pettitte, and Lance Berkman.

Aceves will probably have one or two rehab starts, and then he should be ready. It sounds as if he will be ready very early September. He will not be a rotation option.

Lance Berkman will be back once his 15 days on the DL are up. He was placed on it retroactive to August 16, so he will be back when rosters expand on September 1st.

Alex Rodriguez should be ready in a couple of days. He will DH at first.

Andy Pettitte felt a groin strain while pitching a bullpen session. The Yankees are hoping to get him back sometime around mid-September. Any later and the Yankees will need to worry. Losing Andy Pettitte for the playoffs would be a crushing blow.

Hughes Picks up 15th Win over Tigers; Berkman DL'd

The Yankees picked up their 75th win of the season, as they defeated the Tigers 11-5, also picking up the series win.

The Tigers got on board early with 2 first-inning runs off of Hughes in the first. The Yanks did nothing off of RIck Porcello early on, but in the 4th inning they picked up 2 runs off of four singles.

In the 6th inning however the Yankees unloaded with 9 more runs - it was a quite a show:
Teixeira walk
Cano double
Swisher walk
Posada single
Granderson walk
Kearns double
Pena ground-out
Gardner walk
Jeter triple
Teixeira ground-out
Cano homer
Swisher single
Posada ground-out

That inning allowed the Yankees to take out Hughes (who was rolling) and bring in Mitre. Mitre did not have the greatest of nights (allowing 7 baserunners and 3 runs in 3 innings), but he saved the rest of the bullpen and even got himself a save.

The Yankees ended up winning the game 11-5, and will welcome the Seattle Mariners into town tomorrow night.

TRANSACTION NEWS:
Before the game, the Yankees placed OF Lance Berkman on the 15-day DL with the ankle injury he suffered a few games ago. Eduardo Nunez was called up and made his Major League debut today, fouling out behind the plate.

A-Rod's Perplexing Platoon Splits (Now with more alliteration!)

It is fairly obvious that Alex Rodriguez' 2010 season has not exactly met expectations. His line of .267/.335/.488 certainly leaves something to be desired. There have been some theories about his sub-par production, including from Frankie Piliere, who believes that A-Rod has lost some bat speed and that he is not generating enough power from the lower half of his body. Curiously, A-Rod is also posting a reverse platoon split. Against right-handed pitching, Rodriguez is hitting a respectable (but far below his career averages) of .294/.354/.535. Against southpaws, however A-Rod's line shrinks to .198/.292/.372.

How does one explain A-Rod's bizarre reverse platoon split? Well, a quick glance at the BABiP column shows that A-Rod's BABiP against LHP is a miniscule .208 (compared to .305 against RHP). While A-Rod's line-drive rate at 14.4% is 4.6% below his career average LD% against LHP, I think it's safe to say that A-Rod is experiencing quite a bit of bad luck; his career BABiP against LHP is .283.

On the surface, A-Rod appears to be having a down year. But A-Rod's bad luck on balls in play has exacerbated his poor performance at the plate. And while A-Rod has posted a lower ISO this year (.222 in 2010 vs. .268 in his career), HitTracker actually has A-Rod with a longer average True Distance on his home-runs in 2010 (408.6 feet) than in 2009 (402.4 feet). A-Rod is certainly in the decline phase of his career, but he is far from done as a productive baseball player.

P.S. Stephen R. over at The Yankee U broke down A-Rod's BABiP by batted ball type, and after adding the caveat that A-Rod will indeed age, Stephen plans on "buying" if A-Rod were stock. I would buy some shares, as well. His article was fantastic, so I urge you all to read it (if you haven't already).

Chan Ho Claimed by Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have claimed Chan Ho Park off of waivers and will take responsibilty for the remainder of his contract, which is about $1.3 million dollars.

Dear Pirates Fans,

I'm so sorry.

Sincerely,
Steve S

Albaladejo Doing Work in AAA

Over the past three years, Jonathan Albaladejo has seen a lot of split time between the Yankees' minor league teams and the big league team. Between 2008 and 2009, Albaladejo threw 47.0 innings in the minors and 48.0 innings with the Yankees. Albaladejo did not especially distinguish himself in that timespan, with a FIP north of 4.50 in the majors and a better but unspectacular FIP under 4 in the minors. 2010 has been a different story, however. Except for a stretch in July after the Andy Pettitte injury, Albaladejo has spent his time this season with the Yanks' AAA squad in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. While pitching there, Albaladejo has been making the case to get back onto the Yankees' 25-man roster.

Albaladejo has been mowing down hitters all year. In 51.0 innings, Albaladejo has a sparkling K/9 of 11.47, while maintaining respectable BB/9 of 2.65. This all translates into a gorgeous 2.18 FIP. Minor League Splits' Major League Equivalent projects that Albaladejo would have racked up a 3.27 FIP in the majors. These numbers have not been enough to compel the Yankees to keep Albaladejo on the major league roster for an extended period of time, however.

You can appreciate why the Yankees are skeptical. Albaladejo has never pitched this well in his career, the sample size this year is not that large, and his stuff is not indicative of a great reliever. Albaladejo's fastball is not terribly intimidating; in his brief stint with the big league club earlier this year, Pitch F/X measured Albaladejo's average fastball speed at 91.6 MPH. Albaladejo also throws a curveball and a slider, but he comes with the fastball nearly 70% of the time; it's his number one option.

I'm not necessarily advocating that the Yankees put Albaladejo in the big league bullpen, but it's tough to ignore a 5.26 K/BB ratio. It's easy to understand why Albaladejo is still in AAA; he doesn't wow scouts and he has never put up numbers this strong. Having said that, I think he's still a better option than some of the lesser parts of the Yanks' relief corps, like Chad Gaudin. In any case, it's almost an injustice that Albaladejo is still not in the majors after the way he's been carving up AAA hitters.

Jorge Posada, Ageless Wonder

Quietly, Jorge Posada has been putting together another spectacular year with the wood. Amidst the myriad injuries Posada has fought through over the course of the season, he has managed to put up a wonderful slash line of .267/.373/.481, which converts into a .374 wOBA. These numbers are even more eye-popping when you consider that Posada is a 38 year-old catcher.

Posada compares very favorably with other players at his position. As a matter of fact, Posada has the 4th best wOBA among MLB catchers (min. 200 PA). In addition, the four men in front of him (Buster Posey, Giovanni Soto, Miguel Olivo) all get the benefit of playing in the National League and seeing pitches from pitchers like Jeff Suppan, who put up -0.3 WAR.

Another thing about Posada's performance that I would like to point out is his power. Even at 38, Posada is managing to put up a .214 ISO, which is actually greater than his career average (.203). It should also be pointed out that no other catcher in ML history has managed to put up a higher ISO in his age-38 season. I find it astonishing that Posada is still managing to hit with so much power at such a late age.

Over the years, Yankee fans have been spoiled by Jorge Posada's offensive output at catcher. I'll grant you that his defense is not top-notch, and his health has been giving some at bats away to the light-hitting Francisco Cervelli, but his performance this year has been rather historic. It is very surprising to me that Posada has been able to defy the aging curve and continue to be a strength in the Yankee line-up.

Monday Links

Here are some links to keep you all pacified:

I wrote a guest post at The Yankee U about Brett Gardner's surprising success against left-handed pitching this year. Forgive me, but I think it's pretty good, so go read!

Also, Frankie Piliere of AOL Fanhouse wrote up a scouting report of Alex Rodriguez' swing. Basically, he says that he's not generating enough power from his bottom half, which can explain his alarming decline in power numbers.

Yankees' Deadline Dealings Make Some Sense

I felt I would be remiss if I did not comment on some of the acquisitions the Yankees made just before yesterday's non-waiver trade deadline. All of the additions clearly improve the team at what appears to be very little cost. It appears that a lot of high-fives and pats on the back should be in order for the Yankees' front office.

The trade for Lance Berkman definitely makes the DH position stronger for the Yankees. He now gives the Yankees a much better answer at DH versus RHP than Juan Miranda; Miranda didn't exactly get the chance to show anything meaningful in 67 PA this year, but it is safe to say that he will not approach the .256/.390/.471 line that Berkman has been putting up against RHP this season. In addition, the cost for Berkman was not especially steep, but we'll talk more about that later.

In separate trades with the Indians, the Yankees acquired Austin Kearns and Kerry Wood. In exchange for Kearns, the Yankees pledged to send either a player to be named later or cash the Indians' way. Kearns is an upgrade over Marcus Thames in the sense that he actually can play the field without drawing snickers from the opposition. Thames has the better bat versus LHP (.373 wOBA v. southpaws for Thames in 2010; Kearns has put up a .315 wOBA, but he's probably closer in skill to his .353 career wOBA), but he is mind-numbingly awful in the field. R.J. Anderson thinks both corner outfielders should continue see playing time for the Yankees, but I would not shed my tears if Kearns gets the lion's share of playtime for the Yanks.

As for Wood, the Yanks also agreed to the PTBNL/cash return, in addition to picking up at least $1.5 million of Wood's 2010 salary for the Indians. I'm least impressed by this move, partly because the gentleman getting the ax on the Yankees' roster to make room for Wood, Chan Ho Park, has put up rather similar peripheral statistics in 2010, fluky home-run rate aside. Park has a K/9 of 7.39 and a BB/9 of 3.06, good for a 4.35 xFIP. Wood has a higher K-rate (8.10) but a rather large walk rate of 4.95, which all culminates to a rather unimpressive 5.04 xFIP (in a small 20 inning sample that may not tell us much, however), and Wood, like Park, has spent a good amount of time on the DL this season (and has a very checkered, well-known injury history). The Yankees are certainly buying low on Wood and could be gambling that they see a return to 10+ K/9 that Wood put up in 2008 and 2009. Having said that, I would have rather seen Gaudin or Sergio Mitre (or possibly even flash-in-the-pan Dustin Moseley) get dismissed, but it honestly is not that much of an impact. Wood is still averaging 95 MPH on his fastball, could very well become a reliable bullpen arm, and the Yanks did not appear to give up very much for Wood, something I feared they would do in order to supplement the bullpen.

One other qualm I had with the trade was the loss of Mark Melancon in the Berkman deal. I thought he would have made for a fine bullpen piece on the Yanks' major-league club, but I at least would rather get someone of value for him rather than having him languish in the minors. Kudoz to Brian Cashman for converting Melancon and toolsy infielder Jimmy Paredes into a rental on Berkman. On the whole, Cashman's decisions over the past couple of days were very easy to swallow.

Defending Cervelli's Defense

There seems to be a wide range of opinions regarding back-up catcher Francisco Cervelli. Many individuals, such as Mike Axisa, have been criticizing Cervelli's play, even the backstop's defense. Axisa attempted to quantify how well Cervelli prevented opposing baserunners from advancing via steals, wild pitches, and passed balls. Axisa found that Cervelli did not compare very favorably to other Major-Leaguers (I'm not entirely certain of the validity of Axisa's analysis, but it seems to be fairly legitimate). This indication of poor defense, coupled with Cervelli's fairly subpar work with the wood (.338 OBP, .328 SLG, .304 wOBA), seems to paint a picture that Cervelli is not suited to being a starting catcher, let alone Jorge Posada's oft-used understudy. On the flip side of the coin, people continue to be fans of Cervelli, including the Yankees' Front Office. Inside this piece written today, 660 WFAN's Sweeny Murti indicated that "several in the Yankee organization now believe [Cervelli] can be....an everday guy." In addition, Cervelli had built a reputation for defensive prowess throughout his minor-league career, being anointed the best defensive catcher in the Yankees' farm system for three consecutive years before his promotion to the big leagues.

I get the feeling that that Cervelli's true talent lies somewhere between "detriment to the team" and "everyday catcher." Firstly, his defense may not be as bad as it appears to be at this point in time. For one thing, quantifying catcher defense is notoriously difficult to do; Fangraphs' UZR does not even count UZR for catchers. While the Total Zone metric (which can be found on Baseball Reference) is rating Cervelli very poorly this year (-4 Fielding Runs Above Average, -9 FRAA/1,200 inn), it was singing his praises last year (in 241 and 1/3 inn., an admittedly smaller sample than you would like to have, Cervelli compiled 5 FRAA). Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved Above Average has Cervelli at 1 DRSAA in 2010 (and 3 DRSAA last year). Not exactly awe-inspiring, but is it not a condemnation of Cervelli's defense. In addition, I asked Baseball America's Jim Callis in his chat on July 28 (yesterday) about what he thought of Cervelli's defense, speculating that his defense was heralded in the Yankees' minor league system because the Yanks did not have depth at the catcher position. He had this to say:

Cervelli's defense is his strong suit. All the WP and SB this year are surprising. Most of the Yankees' many catching prospects are bat-first guys, but Cervelli's reputation for having good catch-and-throw skills was well-deserved.

Could Cervelli's defensive ability have suddenly eroded in the majors? I find that difficult to believe. While yes, some of these defensive statistics are rather discouraging (including his awful 17% caught-stealing %), there seems to be a little bit of disagreement between the numbers. Back-up catchers should be able to field, and in the past, Cervelli has shown the ability to be a capable defensive catcher. I don't see any good reason why he cannot continue to be a good defensive catcher and a serviceable back-up in the future.

Yankee Bullpen Troubles Exaggerated

Note: I apologize for the lack of posts from my end, but I have been in Greece for about the last month. I'll try to get some more content up when I get stateside later this week.

In the lead-up to the trade deadline, many Yankee fans have been agitating for Brian Cashman and the Front Office to shore up the much-maligned bullpen. Undoubtedly, this has been brought on by the perceived ineffectiveness of Joba Chamberlain (5.66 ERA), Chan Ho Park (5.74), and Chad Gaudin (6.54), amongst others. I believe that much of the criticism of the bullpen has been unwarranted and that the Yankees do not necessarily require a bullpen upgrade.

The focii of the bullpen angst have been Chamberlain and Park, whom, as mentioned before, have posted some ugly ERAs. Looking at the underlying statistics, however, we can observe that Park and Chamberlain actually have not been pitching all that poorly. Chamberlain has been plagued by a ridiculously high BABiP of .405 (most pitchers usually post BABiPs around .300, and while Chamberlain has posted very high BABiPs in his career, there's no way that he can sustain a BABiP over .400 . Meanwhile, Park has been victimized by an inordinate amount of long balls. His home-run/flyball rate is an uncharacteristic 16.3% (for his career, it has been 12.1%). Both gentlemen have been victimized by bad luck; Joba has posted an xFIP of 3.33, and Park has posted a respectable 4.09 xFIP.

With this said, the Yankee bullpen has not been terrible. Yankee relievers rank 8th in the American League in ERA (4.14); not exactly awe-inspiring, but nor is it cripplingly bad. Advanced metrics smile upon the Yankee bullpen more favorably. The Yanks' bullpen ranks 7th in the AL in FIP (4.04), and 4th in xFIP (4.19). In addition, the Yanks rank 3rd in the AL in relievers' BB/9 (3.43). Admittedly, the Yanks are only 7th in the AL in bullpen K/9 at 7.68, but I think it's safe to say that the Yankees' bullpen is well within the the upper half of the American League. The stud-like K-rate of David Robertson (10.32 K/9; that 4.78 BB/9 needs to go down, though) and the consistent excellence of the Hammer of God himself, Mariano Rivera (3.08 xFIP) should also be mentioned.

While many people view the Yankees' bullpen as a weakness that requires augmentation via acquisitions, I have to disagree. With dead weight like Chad Gaudin and Dustin Moseley in the 'pen, some improvement could be made. However, I think the Yankees would be better served filling the holes with in-house options rather than wading into the trade market for an overvalued reliever. I have in the past advocated recalling Mark Melancon, and there are other minor-league arms on the 40-man roster who could possibly give a boost, including RHP Ivan Nova (3.77 FIP in AAA). In addition, Phil Hughes will eventually be slotted into the bullpen when he inevitably reaches his innings limit as a starter. These may not be the most palatable options for the Yankees, but the bullpen really is not that bad. They should be using their trading chips to get Dan Haren or another bat, not a reliever that probably wouldn't even contribute 1.0 Wins Above Replacement in the remaining months of the season.

What's Been Going On in the Bigs...

With today's win over the Royals the Yankees are now 61-34. This now gives the Yankees a 4 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the Eastern Division and are 7 games ahead of the Wild Card leading Red Sox.

How have the Yankees ben at where they at at the moment? Well starting pitching has been great for the most part. CC Sabathia (13-3, 3.18) has really come on strong after a iffy start to the year, Phil Hughes has been okay (11-3, 3.99), and the injured Andy Pettitte - who will be out for a little over a month, has been amazing (11-2, 2.88). Even Javy Vazquez (8-7, 4.68) has been excellent since his dreadful April. A.J. Burnett (8-8, 4.77) has been up-and-down.

The offense has been just fine. Behind the plate Jorge Posada (.273/.381/.495) has been great offensively while Francisco Cervelli (.269/.344/.339) has been a fine back-up, although he is getting exposed in semi-regular playing time. Mark Teixeira has picked it up a little bit after the ugly start (.260/.372/.473). Robinson Cano has slowed down a little, but is still putting up MVP-type numbers (.334/.391/.565). Derek Jeter has been really, really brutal lately (.271/.334/.387). Alex Rodriguez lately has looked much better and is contuining to be awesome (.278/.350/.500). Brett Gardner is continuing his breakout season (.298/.394/.400, 26 SB) and Nick Swisher could also get himself into MVP talks with his career-year (.303/.377/.536). Curtis Granderson has been a disappointment thus far (.239/.304/.390) and has looked plain ugly at times.

The bench at the moment is being filled out by Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Ramiro Pena, Marcus Thames, and Colin Curtis.

Mariano Rivera has continued his dominance but the guys behind him have been shaky. Joba Chamberlain has been terrible all year and cannot be trusted in a key situation. After a tough start, David Robertson seems to be back to normal. The Yankees still never know what they will get out of Chan Ho Park and Boone Logan. Dustin Moseley and Chad Gaudin are mop-up guys and make the other redundant. Jonathan Albaladejo was just called up and could be an interesting piece. Sergio Mitre is taking Pettitte's spot in the rotation. Alfredo Aceves is likely done for the year with his back injury and Damaso Marte is on the DL as well.

Other guys that have made cameos for the Yankees this year are current St. Louis Cardinal Randy Winn, Nick Johnson - who is still on the DL and likely to be out for a while, Kevin Russo, Chad Huffman, Chad Moeller, Greg Golson, Ivan Nova, and Romulo Sanchez.

After an almost completed deal for Cliff Lee was backed out of by the Mariners, the Yankees have been talking with the Arizona Diamondbacks regarding SP Dan Haren, which would be a great addition. Rumors have been circulating that Ivan Nova would be the centerpiece, with the Yankees maybe also having to take a guy like Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, or Chris Snyder.

The Cost of Revenge

C.C. Sabathia has picked up the habit of sticking up for his fellow Yankees. During Friday night's affair against the Dodgers, C.C. Sabathia plunked Vicente Padilla after Padilla had hit Robinson Cano with a pitch. To me, this was ill-advised on multiple fronts. Firstly, retaliatory HBPs offend my sensibilities because I find the practice of trading beanballs to be dangerous, primitive, and infantile. In addition, I feel it is impractical to essentially gift the opposing offense with a base-runner, especially in close games. Giving the opponent the opportunity to score a run is irresponsible. This post will focus on the latter point.

Sabathia hit Padilla in the bottom of the 5th inning. While this wasn't exactly a high-leverage situation, the game was very close at the time (the score was knotted at 1). With one out, Sabathia had given away a near-sure out and put a man on base for the top of the Dodgers' order. Fortunately for the Yankees, Sabathia induced a ground-ball from the next hitter, Rafael Furcal, and a 6-4-3 double-play resulted. In a similar scenario earlier in the year, however, the Yankees did not fair as well.

On May 8th, with Sabathia again on the hill for the Yanks against the Red Sox, Sabathia drilled Dustin Pedroia with two outs in the bottom of the 3rd inning. With the Yankees ahead by only one run, Sabathia had, like on Friday, needlessly put a runner on the basepaths with an above-average hitter coming to the plate. Unlike Friday, however, the Yanks got burnt in the next at bat. Victor Martinez stepped up to the plate and proceeded to stroke a 2-run homer over the Green Monster at Fenway. The home-run resulted in a 21% swing in win expectancy, according to Baseball Reference. The Yankees ended up winning this game by the score of 14-3, but was drilling Pedroia really worth raising Sabathia's pitch count and falling behind in the game?

I understand the desire to protect your teammates, but to me, the cost of putting your team in a position to lose a game far outweighs the intangible benefit of being "manly" and showing that you are willing to back up your teammates. The objective of Major League baseball clubs is to win baseball games; any macho nonsense is extraneous. Maybe Joe Girardi should have a little talk with Sabatha about toning down the intentional HBPs.

Yanks Call up Curtis for "Boost" on Bench

Before Monday's game the Yankees called up OF Colin Curtis. Curtis, 25, made his Major League debut after hitting .280 with a .357 OBP (with no homers) and a .725 OPS over 125 at-bats in Triple-A.

To make room on the 25 and 40 man roster for Curtis, the Yankees designated third catcher Chad Moeller for assignment.

This is a move they made in order to have an extra bench player for the DL...but I don't understand why they added Curtis. One would think that Jorge Vazquez would be a move useful player to add to the roster (or Juan Miranda) despite Vazquez's limited at-bats above AA ball.

The Draft Post

1st Round: Cito Culver, SS, Irondequoit HS NY
2nd Round: Angelo Gumbs, OF, Torrace HS CA
3rd Round: Robert Segedin, 3B, Tulane TX
4th Round: Mason Williams, OF, West Orange HS FL
5th Round: Thomas Kahnle, RHP, Lynn NY
6th Round: Gabe Encinas, RHP, St. Paul HS CA
7th Round: Taylor Anderson, OF, Woodland HS LA
8th Round: Kyle Roller, 1B, East Carolina NC
9th Round: Taylor Morton, RHP, TN
10th Round: Benjamin Gamel, OF, Bishop Kenny HS FL
11th Round: Zachary Vance, RHP, University of Portland WA
12th Round: Daniel Burawa, RHP, St. John's NY
13th Round: Christopher Austin, C, Heritage HS GA
14th Round: Travis Dean, RHP, Newton South HS MA
15th Round: Chase Whitley, RHP, Troy University AL
16th Round: Evan Rutckyj, LHP, St. Josephs Catholic HS Canada
17th Round: Preston Claiborne, RHP, Tulane TX
18th Round: Kevin Jacob, RHP, Georgia Tech GA
19th Round: Kevin Jordan, OF, Northside HS GA
20th Round: Michael Ferraro, LF, U of SD CA
21st Round: Dustin Hobbs, RHP, Yavapai College NV
22nd Round: Trevor Johnson, LHP, College of the Desert CA
23rd Round: Shane Brown, C, Central Florida FL
24th Round: Conor Mullee, RHP, St. Peters College NJ
25th Round: Casey Stevenson, 2B, UC Irvine CA
26th Round: Richard James Hively, RHP, Santa Ana College CA
27th Round: Martin Viramontes, RHP Loyola Marymount CA
28th Round: Josh Dezse, RHP, Olentangy Liberty HS OH
29th Round: Stewart Ijames, OF, Louisville KY
30th Round: Zachary Nuding, RHP Weatherford College TX
31st Round: Mike Gipson, RHP, Florida Atlantic FL
32nd Round: Kramer Sneed LHP Barton (N.C.) N.C.
33rd Round: Michael Hachadorian RHP San Diego Mesa JC Calif.
34th Round: Keenan Kish RHP Germantown Academy, Fort Washington, Pa.
35th Round: Will Oliver, RHP, Palomar JC CA
36th Round: Nick McCoy, C, San Diego CA
37th Round: Cameron Hobson LHP Dayton Ohio
38th Round: James Ramsay OF Brandon (Fla.) HS Fla.
39th Round: Jaycob Brugman OF Desert Vista HS, Phoenix Ariz.
40th Round: Mike Gerber OF Neuqua Valley HS, Napierville, Ill. Ill.
41th Round: Tym Pearson OF Columbia Basin (Wash.) JC Wash.
42nd Round: Mike O'Neill OF Olentangy Liberty HS, Powell, Ohio Ohio
43rd Round: Kyle Hunter LHP Kansas State Kan.
44th Round: David Middendorf LHP Northern Kentucky Ky.
45th Round: Tyler Johnson, OF, Alamagardo HS NM
46th Round: Nathan Forer RHP Southern Illinois
47th Round: Freddy Lewis LHP Tennessee Wesleyan TN
48th Round: Alex Brown RHP Amphitheater HS, Tucson Ariz.
49th Round: Will Arthur OF Abbotsford (B.C.) SS
50th Round: Matt Rice C Western Kentucky Ky.

When Tex Hits'em, He Crushes'em

Last week, I wrote about Mark Teixeira's perceived struggles, and I concluded that he was just the recipient of some bad luck. I think it's safe to say that Tex's fortunes are due for a turnaround. That conclusion is buttressed by some information I looked up at the indispensable HitTracker website.

HitTracker records the distance, speed, and trajectories of every home-run hit in the major leagues, including all of those hit by Teixeira. HitTracker classifies home-runs into three groups: "No Doubt", "Plenty", and "Just Enough." No Doubt and Plenty home-runs are fairly self-explanatory, and Just Enough homers "cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, or that it landed less than one fence height past the fence." Click here for a full explanation of HitTracker's classifications.

According to HitTracker, of Teixeira's 9 home-runs that have been classified (not including last night's wall-scraper), 4 have been No Doubts, which is tied for fourth amongst AL hitters. The remainder of Tex's home-runs have been classified as Plenties. Furthermore, Tex's 434 ft. bomb that was hit on May 30th ranks as the fifth-longest homer hit by Yankee hitters in 2010, and Tex has 3 of the 10 longest homers. Here's a chart of all of Tex's homers:

Mark Teixeira's ISO is still at a lower-than-usual .173. I expect that number to continue to trend upward, however. As evidenced above, Tex is still hitting balls a long way. It is only a matter of time before Tex starts to take advantage of the short porch in left field from the left side of the plate. Yankee fans just need to be reminded that patience is, indeed, a virtue.

Making Up for Lost Time

Sorry for the lack of posts lately...I clearly haven't been as active as I used to.

Basically, the Yankees have been taking advantage of the lack of ability of the Orioles and Astros, and will be taking on the Phillies tonight, with CC Sabathia taking on Roy Halladay.

The other day the Yankees added Chad Huffman to the roster, who made his Major League debut, going 1-4. Marcus Thames was placed on the DL with a hamstring issue to make room on the roster.

I'll post some stuff on the draft today, and hopefully a minor league update ASAP.

Burnett's New Strategy a Cause for Concern?

Lost amid much of the early-season trials and tribulations of this year's Yankees squad has been the performance of the Yanks' lead pie-thrower, AJ Burnett. While Burnett can boast of an improvement in his walk-rate (3.11 BB/9 in 2010; 4.22 in 2009; 3.75 career), his strike-out rate has seen a steeper drop (2010 K/9: 6.43; 2009: 8.48; 8.27 career). David Golebiewski of Fangraphs recently wrote an article in which he pointed out that hitters are making much more contact this year than in past years off of Burnett. Golebiewski posited that this was due to the ineffectiveness of Burnett's knuckle-curve, but I believe that Burnett's diminished fastball velocity and overall approach to pitching has also played a role in making him more hittable. Here are Burnett's velocity charts (click to enlarge):

In 2007, the first year in which velocity data was available from Pitch F/x, Burnett was averaging 95.9 MPH (the gap you see in the velocity chart can be explained by a two month-long stay on the disabled list for a shoulder strain). In 2008, Burnett's velocity saw a rather large drop to 94.4. The velocity held steady in '09, when he averaged 94.2 on the fastball. This year, however, Burnett's velocity has dropped down to 93.2.

There are two possible explanations for Burnett's decrease in velocity. It is very possible that Burnett is toning down his velocity in order to have better command, and the decreased walk rate appears to indicate that. The decrease in overall fastball velocity could also do with the fact that Burnett has added a two-seam fastball to his repertoire, throwing it 25.1% of the time, in comparison to his four-seamer, which he throws 46.8% of the time. As a side-note, the four-seamer and the two-seamer have similar velocities (4-seam: 93.3; 2-seam: 93.1).

Apparently, Burnett has adjusted his pitching philosophy. He has spoken of his wishes to "become more of a pitcher" (Mark Feinsand) and to "pitch to contact" (Chad Jennings). Developing the sinker seems to go along with that thought process. Catcher Chad Moeller, as quoted in the Jennings piece, indicated that the two-seamer away to left-handed hitters should induce more groundballs. Indeed, it has. In 2010, Burnett has posted his highest ground-ball rate against lefties (51.1%) since 2007, when it eclipsed 53%. Overall, Burnett is inducing ground-balls at a rate of 48.4%, which is good, but not great.

Usually, it's good to have a third pitch, especially if you are a starting pitcher. I laud the fact that Burnett has started using a two-seam fastball and is trying to be smarter about pitching, but the overall approach that he has adopted this year has robbed him of his gargantuan K-rate. The meager improvements in walk rate and ground-ball rate are not enough to justify losing nearly 2 K/9 innings. Keeping balls on the ground is great and all, but the strength of Burnett's game has always been inducing swings and misses. Getting away from his bread and butter does not appear to be working.

Andy Pettitte Overperforming

In 2010, the Yankees have thus far been adept at preventing runs. The Yankees' pitching staff has put up a 3.82 ERA, good for third in the American League. Part of this success on the mound has been due to the stellar hurling of the old stalwart, Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has posted a sparkling ERA of 2.46, but there are indications that he is due for a regression.

Pettitte's peripheral statistics tell a story much different than that told by his ERA. In 80.1 innings, his K/9 is a pedestrian 6.16, while maintaining fairly good command (2.46 BB/9). Pettitte has also been the beneficiary of some good luck; his BABiP is a lower-than-average .256, and he has an unsustainable LOB % of 82.1%. This all computes to a 3.73 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP.

Going forward, we should temper our expectations about Pettitte's performance. There is some good news, however; Pettitte is pitching like a third starter, which is precisely what he is on this Yankees' ballclub. Not bad for a soon-to-be 38 year-old lefty that has a fastball that sits at 88-90.

Yankees Should Take a Flier on Old Cuban LOOGY

Just a though - clearly this is nothing important or that will have any significant impact...

The Baltimore Orioles DFA'd LHP Alberto Castillo, a 34-year old Cuban lefty who has floated around indy leagues and minor leagues for years, before being a member of the Baltimore Orioles from 2008 to 2010, albeit in limited duty.

In 2008 he had a 3.81 ERA in 26 innings (28 games) and in 2009 a 2.20 ERA in 12 innings (20 games). As you can see from the number of innings he has had, he is a LOOGY.

Last year lefties had a .653 OPS against him and in addition to the 2.20 ERA in the majors, he had a 2.77 ERA in Triple-A, with a 1.269 WHIP, a 9.3 K/9, and a 2.9 BB/9, all in his second season in affiliated ball since 1998!

He's been awful so far in the Majors this season, but they can easily just claim him and stash him in the minors and see if he can work things out. The 40-man roster is not an issue because Alfredo Aceves can easily be moved to the 60-day DL (he won't be back anytime soon) and Castillo can easily be DFA'd again if they need the spot.

All I'm saying is that Castillo looks like an interesting player.

What's up with Tex?

Mark Teixeira's performance up to this point into the 2010 season has been a source of a great deal of agitation and discomfort for Yankee fans. Teixeira's lack of offense has been cushioned somewhat by the tremendous lines put up by Robinson Cano (.363/.402/.611; .432 wOBA) and Nick Swisher (.305/.394/.532; .405 wOBA), but it is hardly needed to be said that the Yankees would prefer to have Teixeira's bat running on all cylinders. It remains to be seen whether Tex's sub-par play is simply a slump (or a consequence of sample size issues) or an indication of a change in talent. I believe it is the former and not the latter, but we should dig deeper nonetheless to determine this.

Looking at Teixeira's peripheral statistics may tell us something. After perusing his walk rates and strikeout rates, it can be observed that they are similar to his career averages (2010: 13.0% BB rate, 20.2% K rate; career: 11.4% BB rate, 20.1% K rate). Shifting over to the BABiP column of Tex's statistics, a possible reason for Tex's struggles may be illuminated: bad luck. This year, Tex has posted a BABiP of .229. In his major league career, Teixeira has never posted a BABiP below .288, and has a career BABiP of .304. Some balls just are not falling in for Tex, but that does not completely explain away Tex's low ISO (.152), which also falls well below his career average (.249).

Is the low ISO purely a function of Tex's bad luck on balls in play, or is there something else going on? Tex's batted-ball data should be scrutinized if the answer is going to be found. In 2010, Tex's line-drive %, ground-ball %, fly-ball %, and infield fly-ball % are all within 2% of his career norms. A precipitous drop, however, can be observed in Teixeira's rate of home runs per fly-ball (HR/FB). His 2010 HR/FB % is 11.0%, well under his career average of 18.5%.

It is probable that Teixeira has simply run afoul of the baseball gods, and isn't getting any breaks on balls in play. In addition, there isn't any indication that he's hitting the ball any differently than he used to; he's hitting the same amount of line-drives that he has hit for his entire career. It appears that some of his fly-balls just have not had enough distance to fly over the fences. I anticipate this to change, and so does the ZIPS projection system. Going forward for the rest of the year, ZIPS sees Tex posting an ISO of .208. That may be a little pessimistic, but I feel it captures the idea that the 30-year old switch-hitting slugger is due for a bounce-back.

Free Mark Melancon!

When David Robertson had to leave a game last week due to a strain in his lower back, I wondered if he would end up landing on the DL. My mind raced to the topic of who his possible replacement would be from AAA. The best candidate, in my mind, is one Mark Melancon.

The 6'2", 215 lb. right-hander had once been anointed as the Yankees' "future closer," and now has nothing left to prove in the minors. In 2009, Melancon posted tremendous numbers in AAA; he posted a shiny 2.69 FIP, which was supported by a 8.73 K/9 and a 1.78 BB/9. And this came after a 2008 in which he skipped three levels of the minors, and posted a cumulative 3.04 FIP. Melancon has shown spectactular command throughout his minor league career; he has never posted a BB/9 above 2.70, and that was in 2006. This year, however, Melancon has posted an unusually high 3.90 BB/9, but has been striking men out at a higher rate (10.50 K/9) in 30.0 innings. It should also be noted that he posted a 4.52 FIP in 20.1 major-league innings, but those statistics come from a sample too small to draw conclusions from.

While the increase in free passes may be of concern, something else jumps out about Melancon. In his minor league career, Melancon has induced ground-balls on 57.3% of balls in play; a huge number. In addition, Melancon does not show a noticeable platoon split. These factors, combined with his good control, make Melancon a good right-handed option out of the Yankees' major-league bullpen. While it is certainly hopeful that the Yankees' current bullpen remains healthy, if somebody else goes down with injury (or is ineffective), Melancon should be the first person the Yanks call on.

Tex Claimed by the Royals

In a move that RAB actually kind-of predicted, the Kansas City Royals claimed reliever Kanekoa Texeira off of waivers from the Seattle Mariners. The Rule V rules this apply - he must stay on the roster for the rest of the season, or he would have to clear waivers once again, and then be offered back to the Yankees.

Considering the struggles of the Yankees' bullpen lately, I bet the Yankees were hoping that he could squeak through. Oh well. Best of luck to Tex II.

Posada to DH for Good?

The Yankees made the right call yesterday by demoting Juan Miranda. But the unexpected thing is that they announced that for the time being, Jorge Posada will be the DH. And what's more unexpected is that it basically seems like this will be a semi-permanent move, or at least until Nick Johnson returns from his wrist injury.

This means that the starting catcher for the New York Yankees is Francisco Cervelli. When Cervelli was called up early last year, did you think that you would proudly be saying that one year later? In addition to his great game-calling and youthfulness, which everyone seems to be eating up, he is putting together a .756 OPS, just fine for a catcher, nonetheless a 24-year old one.

Chad Moeller's stay as a New York Yankee is extended for the time being.

Lindsay Claimed; Other Tex DFA'd

Recently DFA'd relief pitcher Shane Lindsay was claimed off of waivers by the Cleveland Indians. Lindsay, who the Yankees recently claimed off of waivers from the Rockies, was DFA'd to make room for Chad Gaudin on the roster. Lindsay did not throw a game in the Yankees' organization and was assigned to the Indian's High-A affiliate.

Furthermore, the Seattle Mariners DFA'd RP Kanekoa Texeira. Texeira was taken by the Mariners in the Rule V draft this offseason and made the roster out of spring training. This move means that if Texeira passes through waivers, the Yankees have the option of taking him back, which they very likely would. Texeira, 24, had a 5.30 ERA in 18.2 innings with the Mariners. I wouldn't be surprised however if some other team struggling for relief help and a young arm took a flier on him. There are some pretty terrible bullpens out there...

The Miranda-Cervelli-Posada Conundrum

Jorge Posada is likely going to be activated from the DL Wednesday. This would mean that the Yankees get a big bat back in the lineup. And with Granderson back, and A-Rod and Teixeira looking like there are back to form, the Yankees' lineup could be a huge threat again.

One wonders what the Yankees will do in response to Posada's return though. So far this season Francisco Cervelli has hit .320/.388/.400 and has done an excellent job behind the plate. With Nick Johnson gone until who knows when, Juan Miranda has gotten the majority of the starts at DH.

Well, how has Juan Miranda been doing so far? Just looking at his stat line one could say he's just been doing a mediocre job. He's hitting .227/.306/.455 which says he doesn't hit the ball all the time, but when he does, it's going to be hit hard. Let's take a look at some other numbers though...

According to Fangraphs.com, through 44 at-bats he has struck 8 times (18.2%), lower than his past minor league numbers where he averages a pretty consistent 22-23%. His BABIP is a low .235, compared to his minor league average of .328. This makes it look like Miranda has been getting unlucky. According to MinorLeagueSplits.com, his line-drive percentage is 11.1% compared to his usual 17-20%; his ground-ball percentage is 33.3% compared to his average of around 40%; his fly-ball rate is 55.6% compared to his usual 43%. A dropped strikeout and groundball rate would make would think he would do better, but his increased flyball rate shows why he might not be. One would guess that he has changed his approach in the Majors; perhaps he is swinging for homers all the time, causing a lot of flyballs.

So based on this information regarding Miranda and Cervelli, what do the Yankees do when Posada returns? Do they keep Cervelli as the catcher and move Posada into the DH role, which would mean that Chad Moeller stays on the roster and that Juan Miranda is demoted? Do they keep Miranda as the full-time DH, with Cervelli getting reduced playing time, which would mean that Moeller is demoted? Do they split have Posada split time between DH and catcher, with Miranda and Cervelli getting on-and-off playing time, meaning that Kevin Russo would be the one demoted?

Give me your thoughts on what the Yankees would do with Cervelli and Miranda.

Should Brett Gardner Play Everyday?

When Curtis Granderson went down with a groin injury, I thought that his stint on the DL would prove to be an interesting trial for Brett Gardner against left-handed pitching. I believe that there was a consensus that Gardner should be platooned whenever possible, but there was still an inkling of curiosity in me wondering whether or not Gardner should be platooned.

Gardner has had a history of modest success against lefties. In 397 career at bats in the minors against southpaws, Gardner posted a rather respectable .292/.361/.406 line. On the surface, these numbers seem pretty good, but they were supported by a lucky .372 BABiP; comparably, Gardner posted a .350 BABiP against righties while posting a .288/.398/.373 slash line.

Gardner had a far higher walk rate against righties than against lefties in the minors, and this has held true in the majors (7.4% v. L, 9.5% v. R). His lackluster walk rate against lefties has been particularly exposed during Granderson's absence. In 2010, Gardner has gone .259/.310/.370 against lefties (58 PAs), which adds up to a .304 wOBA. A .310 on-base percentage just isn't going to help the Yankees win baseball games.

Normally, a .310 OBP and a .304 wOBA are usually unacceptable for a corner outfielder, but Gardner brings something else to the table: sterling defense. According to John Dewan's Defensive Runs Saved, Gardner has racked up 5 DRS this season (3 in CF, 2 in LF), and Gardner has put up a UZR of 2.3. Of course, we're dealing with small samples, but Gardner's career UZR/150 is 23.4 (!), which indicates a sustained period of absolute wizardry in the outfield. There is value in his glove; a good deal of the 1.3 WAR he has accrued this year has come from his fielding.

While it is true that Gardner's platoon-mate, Marcus Thames, mashes lefties (career wOBA of .364 v. LH pitching), Yankee fans can attest to the butchery Thames has committed in the field, and UZR is not kind to him, either (career UZR/150 of -2.3 in RF, -7.1 in LF). Thames offensive prowess against lefties is not enough to justify benching Gardner's far superior glove. While Gardner has difficulty getting on base versus lefties, he is probably going to do better than a .304 wOBA from here on out, and he is the best option on the Yankees' roster to play everyday in left field.

Amauri Sanit Suspended

MLB has announced that Yankees' minor leaguer Amauri Sanit was suspended for 50 games due to violating the PED policy.

Sanit, who will be 31 in July, has been struggling thus far in his second professional year. The Cuba native had a 8.69 ERA in 12 games thus far, and was on the DL when he was suspended.

Steve at WasWatching sums up the situation pretty nicely: Without knowing, I would guess that his usage here was an uneducated panic move. Still, don't do the crime if you can't do the time..."

Yanks Pull One From the Dumpster, Throw One Away, and Get Grand

The Yankees made a few moves of interest the last few days...

First of all, they brought back an "old friend" in Chad Gaudin. Chad Gaudin, who was released by the Oakland Athletics after accumulating a 8.53 ERA in 13 games, was signed by the Yankees and immediately added to the roster in place of Boone Logan, who was sent down. In order to make room for Gaudin, the recently claimed Shane Lindsay was DFA'd, but he should probably clear since the Yankees had last claim priority when he was claimed anyway, unless some team has a sudden change of heart.

Furthermore, today the Yankees activated Curtis Granderson from the DL after his rehab stint with Scranton. In a somewhat surprising move, the Yankees opted to DFA Randy Winn and allow Kevin Russo to keep a roster spot. Winn was a disappointment for the Yankees in 2010, OPSing only .595. Unless a team decides to give Winn a final shot, it would not be surprising to see him retire soon.

Derek Jeter's Newfound Pull Power?

Yesterday, Derek Jeter was the big hero in the completion of the first game of the Yankees-Twins game that had been suspended on Monday due to rain. He managed to pull a Brian Duensing offering over the left-center field fence for a home run, which happened to be the difference in the game. When I watched that, I felt as though this had not been the first time this year Jeter had uncharacteristically displayed some pull power. This spray chart from Texas Leaguers' Pitch f/x Tool illustrates this to some extent.






The numbers, to a degree, bear out this power surge to left field. In 2010, Jeter's isolated slugging percentage (ISO) to left field is a robust .200. Jeter's career ISO to left field differs moderately: it is a modest .151. In addition, in 2008 and 2009, Jeter posted ISOs to left field of .081 and .105, respectively; this year's ISO marks a steep increase.

It remains to be seen whether this is actually a positive development, however. In '08 and '09, Jeter's BABiP to left field were .320 and .361 (career: .340). This year, however, his BABiP to left field has dropped to .269, and has pulled down his overall BABiP to .302 (career BABiP of .358). Conversely, Jeter's flyball rate has jumped to 13.0%; it was only 5.4% and 7.7% in '08 and '09 (8.1% for his career).

When Jeter hits the ball to left field this year, a larger number of them have been flyballs. While some of them have gone for extra-base hits, a lot of other balls hit by Jeter have been converted to outs. Whether this is a change in approach, change in skill, or a function of luck remains to be seen. This should be an interesting thing to keep an eye on, though, because Jeter has posted a BABiP below .320 on balls hit to left field only once in his career (.293 in 2005), and an abnormally low BABiP could be an indication that Jeter's offensive skillset is starting to erode.

A-Rod Seeing More Fastballs?

Yesterday, while writing my post about Alex Rodriguez' at bat against Francisco Rodriguez, I noticed that A-Rod had seen a lot of fastballs from K-Rod, and also a bevy of fastballs from Johan Santana on Saturday. I wondered if A-Rod was seeing more fastballs in general from major league pitchers this season.

For his career, A-Rod has seen fastballs 60.4% of the time. Similar fastball percentages show up from 2008 and 2009: 59.8% and 59.3%, respectively. This year, however, A-Rod has been seeing fastballs 62.8% of the time. Compared with other major-leaguers, this is not an extraordinary amount of fastballs. A-Rod ranks 46th out of 245 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances in fastball percentage (David Eckstein leads all hitters with 73.5%, and Ryan Howard brings up the rear with 42.7%; neither mark is much of a surprise). Basically, A-Rod ranks in the top twentieth percentile of all MLB hitters in terms of fastball percentage.

This increase of more than 3% doesn't really seem to be significant on the surface, but I decided to check out A-Rod's ranking last year amongst hitters with at least 400 plate appearances. Out of 222 major-league hitters who qualified, A-Rod didn't even rank in the top 100. He ranked 108th, which barely puts him in the top fiftieth percentile. In addition, A-Rod ranked 109th out of 212 hitters in 2008. Comparatively speaking, A-Rod is seeing a lot more fastballs this year.

Why are pitchers loading up A-Rod with fastballs, though? This question could not be fully answered without input from a scouting perspective (and I am no scout), but the answer could lie in A-Rod's power numbers. In '08 and '09, A-Rod posted monster isolated slugging percentages (slugging percentage – batting avg.) of .271 and .245. This year, however, his ISO has dropped to a still good (but surprisingly low) .192. Major-league teams may have taken note of this and are now deciding to feed A-Rod more fastballs, less fearful of them leaving the yard.