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Saturday, July 24, 2010

Yankee Bullpen Troubles Exaggerated

Note: I apologize for the lack of posts from my end, but I have been in Greece for about the last month. I'll try to get some more content up when I get stateside later this week.

In the lead-up to the trade deadline, many Yankee fans have been agitating for Brian Cashman and the Front Office to shore up the much-maligned bullpen. Undoubtedly, this has been brought on by the perceived ineffectiveness of Joba Chamberlain (5.66 ERA), Chan Ho Park (5.74), and Chad Gaudin (6.54), amongst others. I believe that much of the criticism of the bullpen has been unwarranted and that the Yankees do not necessarily require a bullpen upgrade.

The focii of the bullpen angst have been Chamberlain and Park, whom, as mentioned before, have posted some ugly ERAs. Looking at the underlying statistics, however, we can observe that Park and Chamberlain actually have not been pitching all that poorly. Chamberlain has been plagued by a ridiculously high BABiP of .405 (most pitchers usually post BABiPs around .300, and while Chamberlain has posted very high BABiPs in his career, there's no way that he can sustain a BABiP over .400 . Meanwhile, Park has been victimized by an inordinate amount of long balls. His home-run/flyball rate is an uncharacteristic 16.3% (for his career, it has been 12.1%). Both gentlemen have been victimized by bad luck; Joba has posted an xFIP of 3.33, and Park has posted a respectable 4.09 xFIP.

With this said, the Yankee bullpen has not been terrible. Yankee relievers rank 8th in the American League in ERA (4.14); not exactly awe-inspiring, but nor is it cripplingly bad. Advanced metrics smile upon the Yankee bullpen more favorably. The Yanks' bullpen ranks 7th in the AL in FIP (4.04), and 4th in xFIP (4.19). In addition, the Yanks rank 3rd in the AL in relievers' BB/9 (3.43). Admittedly, the Yanks are only 7th in the AL in bullpen K/9 at 7.68, but I think it's safe to say that the Yankees' bullpen is well within the the upper half of the American League. The stud-like K-rate of David Robertson (10.32 K/9; that 4.78 BB/9 needs to go down, though) and the consistent excellence of the Hammer of God himself, Mariano Rivera (3.08 xFIP) should also be mentioned.

While many people view the Yankees' bullpen as a weakness that requires augmentation via acquisitions, I have to disagree. With dead weight like Chad Gaudin and Dustin Moseley in the 'pen, some improvement could be made. However, I think the Yankees would be better served filling the holes with in-house options rather than wading into the trade market for an overvalued reliever. I have in the past advocated recalling Mark Melancon, and there are other minor-league arms on the 40-man roster who could possibly give a boost, including RHP Ivan Nova (3.77 FIP in AAA). In addition, Phil Hughes will eventually be slotted into the bullpen when he inevitably reaches his innings limit as a starter. These may not be the most palatable options for the Yankees, but the bullpen really is not that bad. They should be using their trading chips to get Dan Haren or another bat, not a reliever that probably wouldn't even contribute 1.0 Wins Above Replacement in the remaining months of the season.

What's Been Going On in the Bigs...

With today's win over the Royals the Yankees are now 61-34. This now gives the Yankees a 4 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the Eastern Division and are 7 games ahead of the Wild Card leading Red Sox.

How have the Yankees ben at where they at at the moment? Well starting pitching has been great for the most part. CC Sabathia (13-3, 3.18) has really come on strong after a iffy start to the year, Phil Hughes has been okay (11-3, 3.99), and the injured Andy Pettitte - who will be out for a little over a month, has been amazing (11-2, 2.88). Even Javy Vazquez (8-7, 4.68) has been excellent since his dreadful April. A.J. Burnett (8-8, 4.77) has been up-and-down.

The offense has been just fine. Behind the plate Jorge Posada (.273/.381/.495) has been great offensively while Francisco Cervelli (.269/.344/.339) has been a fine back-up, although he is getting exposed in semi-regular playing time. Mark Teixeira has picked it up a little bit after the ugly start (.260/.372/.473). Robinson Cano has slowed down a little, but is still putting up MVP-type numbers (.334/.391/.565). Derek Jeter has been really, really brutal lately (.271/.334/.387). Alex Rodriguez lately has looked much better and is contuining to be awesome (.278/.350/.500). Brett Gardner is continuing his breakout season (.298/.394/.400, 26 SB) and Nick Swisher could also get himself into MVP talks with his career-year (.303/.377/.536). Curtis Granderson has been a disappointment thus far (.239/.304/.390) and has looked plain ugly at times.

The bench at the moment is being filled out by Francisco Cervelli, Juan Miranda, Ramiro Pena, Marcus Thames, and Colin Curtis.

Mariano Rivera has continued his dominance but the guys behind him have been shaky. Joba Chamberlain has been terrible all year and cannot be trusted in a key situation. After a tough start, David Robertson seems to be back to normal. The Yankees still never know what they will get out of Chan Ho Park and Boone Logan. Dustin Moseley and Chad Gaudin are mop-up guys and make the other redundant. Jonathan Albaladejo was just called up and could be an interesting piece. Sergio Mitre is taking Pettitte's spot in the rotation. Alfredo Aceves is likely done for the year with his back injury and Damaso Marte is on the DL as well.

Other guys that have made cameos for the Yankees this year are current St. Louis Cardinal Randy Winn, Nick Johnson - who is still on the DL and likely to be out for a while, Kevin Russo, Chad Huffman, Chad Moeller, Greg Golson, Ivan Nova, and Romulo Sanchez.

After an almost completed deal for Cliff Lee was backed out of by the Mariners, the Yankees have been talking with the Arizona Diamondbacks regarding SP Dan Haren, which would be a great addition. Rumors have been circulating that Ivan Nova would be the centerpiece, with the Yankees maybe also having to take a guy like Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, or Chris Snyder.