Robbie Cano's Phantom Walk-Rate

On the surface, it appears that Robinson Cano has taken a major step forward in his overall game. His line of .325/.389/.562, combined with his slightly above-average defense (3.6 UZR/150, +3 on Total Zone), has brought Cano into the Most Valuable Player discussion. If one searches for the term "Robinson Cano MVP," Google fetches roughly 65,000 results. Cano's 2010 campaign for MVP has been buttressed by his increased power (his .237 ISO is a career-high) and his spike in walk-rate (his 8.7% walk-rate is also a career-high). While I believe the power is real, I think it would be prudent to look deeper into Cano's walk-rate.

Cano's walk-rate has jumped significantly; in his previous two seasons, Cano had posted underwhelming walk-rates of 4.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Cano, in his short career, had never posted a walk-rate greater than 5.8% prior to 2010. From observing this year's games, though, Cano has appeared to become a more patient hitter, but more rigorous analysis is needed than the old-fashioned eye-ball test.

With Cano's aforementioned power surge, it appears that managers are becoming more unwilling to pitch to him; this year, Cano has drawn 12 intentional walks, which also happens to be a career-high (and by a large margin; he's never drawn more than 5 in a season, and we still have September to go). Those IBBs make up roughly one quarter of all of Cano's BBs this season (49). When we remove Cano's IBBs, his on-base percentage goes from a very impressive .389 to a still-good .375. In addition, Cano's walk-rate, when removing the IBBs, becomes 6.7%; a fairly large discrepancy.

Even after intentional walks are taken out of the equation, it is apparent that Cano is walking more than ever. While a 6.7% walk-rate is still a career-best for Cano, it is, however, far from impressive. With this information in mind, we should temper our enthusiasm (slightly) for Cano's great year. Nevertheless, Cano's walk-rate will continue to improve with age, and is a good companion for his contact, power, and defensive skills.