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Friday, June 11, 2010

Andy Pettitte Overperforming

In 2010, the Yankees have thus far been adept at preventing runs. The Yankees' pitching staff has put up a 3.82 ERA, good for third in the American League. Part of this success on the mound has been due to the stellar hurling of the old stalwart, Andy Pettitte. Pettitte has posted a sparkling ERA of 2.46, but there are indications that he is due for a regression.


Pettitte's peripheral statistics tell a story much different than that told by his ERA. In 80.1 innings, his K/9 is a pedestrian 6.16, while maintaining fairly good command (2.46 BB/9). Pettitte has also been the beneficiary of some good luck; his BABiP is a lower-than-average .256, and he has an unsustainable LOB % of 82.1%. This all computes to a 3.73 FIP and a 4.08 xFIP.

Going forward, we should temper our expectations about Pettitte's performance. There is some good news, however; Pettitte is pitching like a third starter, which is precisely what he is on this Yankees' ballclub. Not bad for a soon-to-be 38 year-old lefty that has a fastball that sits at 88-90.

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