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Sunday, February 1, 2009

Prospects by Position: Catcher

Since it is clearly a slow time in the baseball word (see my "humorous" posts), I figured I would pretend to be an insightful blogger my posting a list. Lists! Everyone loves lists! I think I'm going to make one for each position. Deal? Well I don't care what you say. This is my blog - SO TAKE THAT!

My Rating Criteria (In no specific order):
1) Age
2) Level/Stats
3) Floor/Upside

My Numbering System (with examples)

1: I honestly could be a better prospect than this guy (Can't think of anyone)
2: Expect him to be released any day (Ben Blumenthal)
3: On very, very thin ice/filler (CJ Henry)
4: A little above filler (Joe Muich)
5: Long Shot (Kyle Anson)
6: Mediocre Prospect (Ryan Pope)
7: Solid Prospect (George Kontos)
8: Above-Average Prospect (Jeremy Bleich)
9: Excellent Prospect (Andrew Brackman)
10: One of the Best Prospects in Baseball (Jesus Montero)

8) JOSE GIL, 22

To be honest, putting Gil on a prospect list is being a bit optimistic. As a 21 year old in High-A ball last year he hit .240/.289/.321 and his career line isn't much better. The Venezuela native showed some power in 2007, hitting 12 homeruns between Charleston and Staten Island in only 334 at-bats, but not much else.

2008 was like A Tale of Two Cities for Gil. He started out the season fairly respectably: hitting .269, .295, and .286 in April, May, and June respectively, with his best month being May (.712 OPS). However, in July and August he hit .170 and .163 respectively, destroying his numbers.

Gil will probably return to Tampa and be a back-up to Montero/Romine. He'll get a few at-bats, but he's not going to get much of a chance. As of right now it seems that he will be lucky to make it past High-A ball.

Prospect Rating: 4/10

7) Kyle Anson, 25 (26 in April)

Anson moved behind the plate following the 2005 season (but missed the 2006 season with a knee injury). Gil doesn't hit much more than Gil, but the one thing that he has going for him is his ability to walk. His career ISOd is .113, well above average. He doesn't have much power as he hit only 4 homeruns in 224 at-bats in 2008.

He was moved behind the plate because of his good arm which was shown in 2008 as he threw out over 33% of runners.

Anson will probably spend 2009 in Double-A behind Cervelli. His age severly reduces his value and rating. He's not hopeless, but at this point it would be surprising if he gets a cup of coffee. Whether he can maintain a respectable average in the higher levels (he hit .241 in 2008, which can certaintly be improved upon), will probably be the deciding factor.

Prospect Rating: 5/10

6) P.J. Pilittere, 27

Anson is probably a bit better, but I will put Pilittere slightly above him based on likeliness to appear in the majors. Pilittere will likely be the back-up catcher in Triple-A behind Kevin Cash, but if he hits well enough I would expect the Yankees to go to him over Cash, who is one of the worst hitting catchers in the history of Major League Baseball.

The "catchers with no power" motif will continue with P.J. He has only 14 homeruns (with 62 doubles and 5 triples) in 1,300 career at-bats. Interestingly, he has never had a full season worth of at-bats despite his age and level; the most he has ever had was last year with 364.

He's good for a ISOd of about .050 which isn't that great for a .269 career hitter, to go along with his .676 OPS.

The key to his game is his catching ability. He supposedly is an amazing game-caller.

Pilittere has a chance to be in the majors this year if things go right for him. But don't expect him to be more than a mediocre at best back-up catcher/third catcher/September call-up.

Prospect Rating: 5.5/10

5) Chase Weems, 19 (20 in January)

Weems was the Yankees' 6th round draft pick back in 2007 and was taken out of high school; he was given a well above slot bonus.

This is from BA: He has athleticism and a sound swing from the left side, but his best tool is his arm strength, which grades as a 65 on the 20-80 scale. His footwork is fine behind the plate, but he has stiff hands and he's not an adept receiver, leading to questions about his ability to stay behind the plate.

To be honest, there isn't a whole lot of info out there on Weems and he has only had 82 at-bats, but his age and draft spot alone get him up to #5; there is no doubt that he has much more potential than the guys above.

Prospect Rating: 6/10

4) Kyle Higashioka, 18

Higashioka was taken in the 7th round of the 2008 draft out of high school.

Higashioka had been on scouts' radars for a while as one of the better prep catchers available in this year's draft class. He was known more for his defensive ability, though he does possess some upside with the bat, as well. He "slid" to the seventh round partially because of a strong commitment to Cal. But the Yankees were able to get him signed for an above-slot $500,000. Had that not happened, he would have been on Cal's campus getting ready for his first college season. Needless to say, he feels he's ahead of the game in terms of what he eventually wants to accomplish. (Source)

SCOUTING REPORT: It may play into Higashioka’s hand that high school catching in California this season is in short supply—with the notable exception of Patriot High’s Kyle Skipworth, almost a cinch first-rounder. Higashioka could be selected in the top 10-15 rounds on the scarcity of catching alone, but his tools may not profile being drafted that early and he may be a signability risk if not selected in the top 3-4 rounds as he is a top student academically and heavily committed to college at California. A high-energy player, his only above-average present tool is his arm, and he generates sub-2.0 pop times more with a quick release than with pure arm strength. Area scouts compared him to former Cal State Fullerton catcher Kurt Suzuki, now with the Oakland A’s, but he lacks Suzuki’s quickness and athleticism behind the plate. Higashioka has an aggressive approach at the plate with modest power potential, but his swing tends to get a little long at times. He struggled to catch up to even average fastballs.—ALLAN SIMPSON (Source)

Like a lot of recent draftees, there isn't that much (free) info to go by. He is coming out of high school so he will be raw, but there is a possibility he goes straight to Charleston like Romine did last year. His defense is his strong-suit and appears to have some hitting potential.

He had an okay debut in the GCL last year; in 46 at-bats he hit .261/.300/.648 with 1 homerun and 1 double.

Prospect Rating: 6.6/10

#3) Francisco Cervelli, 22 (23 in March)

Cervelli was signed out of Venezuela and made his stateside debut in 2005. Cervelli's career is interesting considering the most at-bats he has ever had in a season is just 290; despite that he has already made the majors.

Cervelli will never hit for power; he has only five homers in 576 at-bats. Despite that, he can be a solid hitter. He gets his share of extra base hits (28 in 290 at-bats in '07) and is probably one of the most patient hitters in the entire organization. He has a career ISOd of .101 to go along with his .280 career average.

As Yankee Spring Training followers know, he collided with Elliot Johnson at home plate, broke his wrist, and pretty much lost most of the season, save one month. In that one month however, he hit .315/.432/364 with five doubles (and no homers) in 73 at-bats. Yes it is a small sample size, but it is still impressive nonetheless.

According to BA he has "above-average catch-and-throw skills" and is very good at throwing out baserunners. He threw out 5-14 last year and he threw out 41% in 2007. Also, he "has a feel for handling pitchers and impressed scouts with his toughness and ability to frind through a season."
Basically, he's likely to have a solid career as a back-up at least; his defensive abilities and walk ability really help that. But I think he has to keep his average respectable and maybe develop a little more power to be a good starter.

He will start the season starting at Double-A Trenton but expect him to move fast when the Yankees realize that Kevin Cash is not good at baseball.

Prospect Rating: 7.6/10

#2) Austin Romine

Austin was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft and has quickly risen to one of the better prospects in the Yankees organization.

In terms of defense, he supposedly has an amazing arm. From Baseball America: His arm is his best tool, among the most powerful in a strong draft crop of catchers. Romine's pop times to second base have ranged from 1.78 to 1.85 seconds, putting him near an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. However, this did not transfer into results. He threw out only about 20% of the runners in 2008. In addition, BA also had this to say about his receiving skills: Romine has some work to do himself to become an adequate defender. While Romine has an excellent arm, he is not a good receiver—at least not yet. He’s athletic, but his footwork is a work in progress. He had 18 passed balls in only about 450 innings, not a good number at all. Clearly he has some work to do behind the plate.

His offense, especially his power, really came on the second half of the year. He missed some time in his first half of the year with an injury. In April he hit .351/.367/.806 with no homers and in May he hit .182/.229/.532 with no homeruns. However, in June, July, and August he hit a combined ten homeruns, with OPSs of .757, .694, and .935. Overall he hit a very impressive .299/.344/.781 as a 19 year old in Charleston.

An interesting stat to note is his offense as a C vs DH: As a catcher he hit .338/.384/.891, while as a DH he hit .251/.296/.649.

Romine is in a tough situation. He really needs to work on his field if he wants to be the catcher of the future; however, he splits all of his time as catcher with Jesus Montero. The ideal situation would be for them to each catch full-time, but that would that either: one gets held back to Charleston, or one skips Tampa and goes to Trenton - not happening.

Nonetheless, he is one of the better Yankee prospects, considering his age, production, and his position.

Rating: 8.3

#1) Jesus Montero

Montero was signed as an international free agent in 2006, when he signed a $1.6 million dollar deal.

The hype was large and Montero definitely lived up to the expectations in 2008. Overall, as a 19 year old in High-A Charleston, he hit .326/.376/.868 with 17 homers, 34 doubles, and 1 triple. He tore up the league in July and August though; he hit .341/.394/.921 with 4 homeruns in July and .373/.428/1.023 with 6 homeruns in August.

Quite frankly, his power and hitting potential is enormous. It is no surprise that he is rated one of the best prospects in baseball. I see no reason why, if he reaches his full potential, he couldn't be good for a .300 average with 40 homers.

But the position at which he does that is the question. It is suspected that he will eventually move off of catcher and probably to first base. His big size and not-so-golden glove are reasons for this speculation. However, he does have plenty of time to work on this, and there have been some big guys that have been catchers (see Joe Mauer.)

Prospect Rating: 9.5

6 comments:

P-Cat said...

Outstanding post. Wish more places would do things like this. Thanks for the info.

Anonymous said...

Could you explain what the slash stats you are referencing refer to? Is that BA/OBP/OPS? That third one can't be slugging, as would be normal.

Anonymous said...

It looks like it's OBP/SLG/OPS

Anonymous said...

AVG/OBP/OPS

Stephen said...

Outstanding list, but instead of Gil, I would rather have guys like Valera (DSL), Liccien (DSL), or even Baker or Arica. Abeita is a very good role player. Straugsbaugh made a team and Gil didn't even make one though I don't see a future for him. They probably didn't want someone to lose ABs.

Louise said...

The Yankees have achieved a level of success in the world of baseball that is so gaudy, so well known, and so storied picking a handful of players to call their all time best is no easy task. They should be always competitive enough to keep pace with the others. I used to attend their games even their tickets get sold out. Luckily I found Ticketwood.com, now I’ll before compare prices before getting tickets. Go Yankees!!
http://www.ticketwood.com/mlb/NewYork-Yankees-Tickets/index.php