How Will the 40 Man Roster Play Out?

(Addition added on 10/6)

Like always, the Yankees will have to make some tough decisions involving their 40 man roster during the offseason. I think I will take a look at these decisions and tell the Yankees what to do (Because I know you read this Cashman!!!)

(Might Be) Losing due to Free Agency/Retirement:

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Andy Pettitte
Sidney Ponson
Chad Moeller
Cody Ransom
Jason Giambi
Bobby Abreu
Ivan Rodriguez
Damaso Marte

The 100% Locks to Keep Spots Unless a Trade Occurs:
Alfredo Aceves
Andrew Brackman
Brian Bruney
Joba Chamberlain
Phil Coke
Phil Hughes
Ian Kennedy
Edwar Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Humberto Sanchez
Jose Veras
Chien-Ming Wang
Francisco Cervelli
Jorge Posada
Jose Molina
Robinson Cano
Wilson Betemit
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Melky Cabrera
Johnny Damon
Brett Gardner
Xavier Nady
Hideki Matsui
Juan Miranda
Jeff Marquez
Chase Wright
Jonathan Albaladejo
Dan Giese

That is 29 players on the roster...So let's go to the question marks....

Chris Britton: He's shown very little in his brief stints with the Major League team and it's for both of their benefits to part ways. The Yankees have shown that he is nothing more than a mop-up reliever and will never be given a chance, especially with the increasing amount of bullpen depth. I am 100% sure that Britton will be traded to an NL team this offseason - the Mets could be a fit.

Darrell Rasner: Let him go to. He'll never do better than a 5.00 ERA in the AL East as a starter. If the Yankees can find a match, trade him, but otherwise, he is a non-tender candidate.

Shelley Duncan: The Yankees tried to make him a lefty-platoon guy, but he only went 9-37 against lefties (.243) with a .310 OBP, and then was sent packing to the minors. If the Yankees truely believe he can hit Major League lefties, he will be back.

Justin Christian: I think they'll keep him, especially if they give Gardner the centerfield job. He can be the pinch-runner if they decide they want one and the first outfielder called up.

So that's 31 players....

Now it's impossible for me to guess which free agents are coming back or will be signed, so I'll go over the minor leaguers that need to be added based on priority....

1) SP Alan Horne: Despite the poor, injury plagued year, I think that he is a lock no matter what.

2) SP Wilkins de la Rosa: I believe that they have to. He'll be a free agent because of his past life as a hitter. His 2.29 ERA in Low-A ball in his first full season gets him the spot. If he makes it, he's probably not that far away. I don't think a late 2010 debut is unreasonable. He's 23, so he was slightly old for his league, but nonetheless, he will be added.

3) RP Jhonny Nunez: He was acquired in the trade deadline Alberto Gonzalez deal and his conversion to relief has look (to quote Larry David) "pretty, pretty good." He did only throw eight games in the Yankees organization, but in his thirteen games as a reliever (in Double-A) he has allowed only four runs, while striking out 34, but he does need to watch the control. The sharp increase in numbers and his age (23 in November) gets him on in my book.

4) SP Chris Garcia: He's finally (hopefully) health, and his excellent numbers in High-A make him necessary to add to the roster. After missing basically two years with various injuries, he struck out 60 in 49.2 innings and had a 49.2 ERA. He's only 23 and will move quickly if healthy. He is a must to. Not to overrate him, but if they don't protect him, I think it'll be a Johan Santana-Astros type situation. He's be buried as a mop-up man and stink for a year, and then prove himself.

5) RP J. Brent Cox: He had a so-so year coming off of Tommy John Surgery and probably doesn't look to be a set-up man, but he should probably be added nonetheless.

If extra room: 6) Anthony Claggett 7) Kevin Whelan 8) Zach Kroenke as needed.

This leaves the following players up for grabs in the Rule V Draft: 3B Chris Malec, SS Ramiro Pena, SP Michael Dunn, RP Kevin Whelan, RP Anthony Claggett, C Kyle Anson, RP Zachary Kroenke, SS Eduardo Nunez, IF Reegie Corona, RP Steven Jackson, SP Eric Hacker, C PJ Pilittere, IF Eric Duncan, RP Wilkins Arias, SP Jason Jones, RP Eric Wordekemper, OF Matt Carson, OF Edwar Gonzalez, OF Tim Battle.

Now why shouldn't they place these guys on the 40 man roster? Well I'm glad you asked.

Chris Malec: He had a nice season yes, (.291/.407/.819, 5 homeruns), but it is not nearly enough for a now 26 year old in Double-A.
Chance of Being Selected: 2%
Ramiro Pena, Reegie Corona: They don't hit enough nor does they have a peak high enough worth keeping them on another team's roster all year. It would be kind of pointless.
Chance: 5% (Orioles would be the taker)
Michael Dunn: A poor season in High-A for a 23 year old doesn't turn eyes.
Chance: 1%
Kevin Whelan: His control is horrible and has shown zero signs on improvement in it. Probable to be picked because of his "stuff", but even if so, he would probably be returned.
Chance: 20%
Anthony Claggett: High WHIP and walk rate in AA. Could be useful however, just not enough room.
Chance: 30%
Kyle Anson, Eric Wordekemper, Eric Duncan, Edwar Gonzalez, Wilkins Arias, Eduardo Nunez, PJ Pilittere, Tim Battle: No reason to suggest them being picked at all.
Chance: .0001%
Zach Kroenke: Good season and is a lefty, just a victim of a lack of room.
Chance: 15%
Steven Jackson: Nice second half but another victim of room. Plus, he will be 27 during Spring Training and this is his first decent season at Triple-A.
Chance: 10%
Eric Hacker, Jason Jones: Nice track record and season but considering the age and level, not worthy.
Chance: 5%
Matt Carson: Nice AAAA player but does not need to be added; he will become six-year minor league free agent.

Realistically, I think that one or two of the relief pitchers will be taken, but none of the hitters will. I believe that out of those Whelan, Kroenke, and Claggett have the best chance of being selected, which would not be a huge loss. If the Yankees want to be risky, they could trade one of them if they really believe that they will be picked so as not to lose the player for nothing.

Feel free to destroy me in the comments sections.