This Year's Free Agents: What Could They Reel In?

With the 2008 season just beginning, there is obviously a long way to go before the offseason begins. Regardless, the Yankees will have a lot of free agents leaving, and hopefully, a lot of draft picks coming in for the 2009 draft. But my question is, what type of comp picks will they be picking up?

How does the free agent compensation work? MetsBlog posted this:

-Free agents are grouped into three types of players; Type
A, Type B and Unclassified.
-Type A players comprise of players in the top 20 percent of their positions. A team that signs a Type A player must give its top
draft pick to the team that is losing the player. The team that lost
the player also receives a supplemental pick between the first
and second rounds. However, if the signing team has a draft pick in
the first half of the first round (picks 1-15), their first round pick
is protected and would then surrender their next highest draft pick.
-Type B players comprise of players in the top 21-40 percent
of their positions. Any team that loses a Type B players receives
a supplemental pick, but the signing team does not lose any picks.
-Any team who loses an unclassified player is not subject to any
compensation.
-The formula to determine player types, which is not widely
known, is comprised of several factors, including statistical
analysis of the players previous two seasons, and players are grouped into the following positional categories: 1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, and RP According to MLB Trade Rumors, Keith Law said the stats
used are as follows: 1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances),
IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, K RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts) IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA
-In order for the former team of a free agent to receive
compensation for losing a player to free agency, the player must sign with another team before December 2 or the team must have offered the player arbitration before December 1.
-If a team signs multiple free agents from within the same category,
the team loses picks in order of the highest-ranked players.
-Teams are limited to the number of Type A and Type B free
agents they can sign, which is determined by the number of free agents
available. Example: If there are less than 14 Type A or B free agents, no one team can sign more than one Type A or B free agent. According to Law, last season there were approximately 93 Type A or B free agents, who filed for free agency, which left the per-team quota at eight.

The following players will be free agents next season: Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Morgan Ensberg, Bobby Abreu, Carl Pavano, and Jason Giambi.

Andy Pettitte's status seems unclear. He could retire, the Yankees could bring him back, or he could go back to Houston. If he chooses to retire, the Yankees would obviously get nothing. If he comes back to the Yankees on a one year deal, once again they would get nothing. However, it he chooses to leave the Yankees and go back to the Astros, the Yankees could get something back. I'll base his possible status on past examples. Last year, the worst starting pitchers to get B status were Vincente Padilla and Paul Byrd. Pettitte will definitely outperform their past 2 seasons so, I would say at least a type B. Can he get an A? Last year the worst A starting pitcher was Javier Vazquez. This was off seasons were he was 11-12 with a 4.84 and 15-8 with a 3.74. Last year Pettitte 15-9 with a 4.05. It's probable that he could gain Type A status if he repeats that, or has a slight worse season, probably up to and around a 4.30 ERA.

Kyle Farnsworth? Surprisingly, he will net a type B pick. According to last year ratings for relievers Farnsworth, coming off 2 mediocre to poor seasons was a type B. Assuming he has a season with an ERA around the mid-4s, he seems like a lock to pick one up.

Latroy Hawkins? When the Yankees signed him, he wasn't a Type A or B. It looks very unlikely that he will earn a Type B, or even finish the year with the team.

Mike Mussina? With a decent ERA (low 4's), starts, and wins, he definitely could earn a B. Chances of that happening? Not very likely.

Morgan Ensberg? He probably won't play enough to earn anything.

Jason Giambi? Considering that last year Emil Brown, Reed Johnson, and Sean Casey earned Type Bs, it seems pretty likely that with almost a full season of work, Giambi will be a Type B. Last year, the worst Type As were JD Drew and Nick Swisher. It seems unlikely that Giambi can match their past two seasons unless he puts together and excellent year: say .250/.360, 30 HR, 100 RBI, which is possible, but once again unlikely considering his age and injuries.

Bobby Abreu? Assume he and the Yankees part ways, it is safe to say he'll at least earn a Type B. For a Type A, if he puts up similar numbers to last year, he'll probably get it. His numbers would be better than JD Drew's the past two years, and he got Type A status last year.

Pavano? Not a thing.

Conclusion: If Pettitte goes to the Astros, definitely a B, possibly an A. Mussina could get a B with a decent season. Farnsworth, unless he is absolutely brutal, will likely get a B. Giambi, with enough playing time will likely get a B, with a great season, he will earn an A. Abreu is almost a lock to reel in an A.

What does this mean?: The Yankees can go ahead and sign CC Sabathia without worrying about the draft. They will get 1 or 2 As, and 3 or 4 Bs.

EDIT: A couple people have pointed out the fact that in arbitration, a player's contract cannot go down by more than 20%. However, it isn't too farfetched to believe that the Yankees will just ask guys such as Giambi and Mussina to decline arbitration considering the history they've had and the insane amount of money they've given to these two players in the past.

Also, thanks to MLBTradeRumors.com for posting this article. I don't think my number of hits has ever gone up so quickly.